Across the world, West Ham United supporters are consulting psychics, fortune tellers, tarot card readers, and Ouija boards to answer one pressing question: Can the Hammers stay up?
Well, we’re here to help. We’ve visited the Oracle of Delphi in Greece and crunched the numbers to provide an analysis of West Ham’s chances versus four other teams in and around the drop zone. Those teams are Burnley, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur, and Leeds United.
We’ve calculated a numerical “strength of schedule” figure (we call it the Great Escape Rate) based on how difficult the road ahead is for each team. We’re not going to reveal our proprietary method – after all, this is Green Street Hammers, not a scientific journal – but here’s a brief look at how we determined the number.
First, we checked the current position in the table of each team’s opponent for the next five EPL matches. We didn’t go past five matches because it’s just too difficult to predict how these opponents will look beyond this time frame in terms of form, injuries, etc. We gave each match a difficulty score.
Next, we applied multipliers for away matches and matches immediately following cup games (FA Cup, Europa League, etc.). History shows just how difficult it is to win away from home in the EPL. In fact, data shows that winning away is 40% to 50% harder than winning at home. We also added a small multiplier for matches following cup games because, again, data shows those games are more difficult to win.
Finally, we piled on a multiplier for the two teams currently facing demotion: Burnley and, yes, West Ham. It pains us to admit it, but the reasoning is obvious. All the teams above them must maintain their positions to avoid relegation. Burnley and the Hammers must gain ground.
All these factors contributed to our overall Great Escape Rate. Remember: The higher the number, the lower the odds of each team maximizing points from the next five matches.
Burnley (currently 19th, seven points from safety)
Great Escape Rate: 16.6
Burnley’s upcoming schedule is really not all that difficult on a relative basis, but they receive the highest Great Escape Rate because they are forced to climb over West Ham to get to safety.
Over their next five matches, they are away to two mid-table teams in Everton and Fulham, and they get struggling Brighton and mid-table Bournemouth at home. Perhaps the biggest test, however, comes this Saturday when they host Brentford.
The Bees have been enjoying a dream campaign so far, but came crashing down to earth last week in a 2-0 loss to Brighton. It was one of Brentford’s worst performances of the season. On the other hand, Burnley is coming off one of their most uplifting outings. Last weekend, they drew 1-1 away to Chelsea with Zian Flemming scoring an equalizer in the 93rd minute against a 10-man Blues side.
If Burnley are going to have a realistic chance of surmounting West Ham and escaping the drop, they will need to start this upcoming stretch of the season with a solid match at home to Brentford.
Nottingham Forest (currently 17th, three points above the drop zone)
Great Escape Rate: 11.1
Hammers fans have three massive reasons to curse Turkish side Fenerbahce. Three is the number of goals they surrendered to Forest last week in the Europa League. This means Forest can go on cruise control for the second leg of the tie on Thursday and rest their starters leading up to their match away to Brighton this weekend.
Of course, West Ham fans can smile that Forest will have a Europa League round-of-16 match squeezed into their upcoming schedule. This makes a relatively easy slate of their next four matches a wee bit more difficult.
After Brighton, Forest do face a stern test when they travel to City. But then they get Fulham at home, are away to Spurs, and then get Villa at home. There’s a solid chance for them to pick up points in all three of these clashes, particularly considering they’ve gained points in seven of 13 home matches this season.
Tottenham Hotspur (currently 16th, four points above the drop zone)
Great Escape Rate: 11.0
West Ham supporters can take some grim satisfaction in the fact that Spurs’ season has been even more shambolic than the Hammers’. Now they’ve brought in caretaker manager Igor Tudor to try to save their injury-ravaged campaign.
According to our back-of-the-envelope analysis, Tottenham have the “easiest” run in terms of strength of schedule. Yes, they’re away to Fulham and Liverpool, so they’ll be fortunate to gain even a point from those two. But luckily for them they travel to Sunderland to face a team that’s been sliding down the table with just two league victories since December 20. They also face Palace and Forest at home.
A wild card in the deck is Spurs’ Champions League travails. They qualified for the round of 16 and will find out their opponents in Friday’s draw. Those matches will be held in successive weeks in March, threatening to put even further strain on this shorthanded club. But the calendar looks very kind to them. Their UCL first leg match takes place just before they travel to Liverpool – where they would be badly outmatched under any circumstances. And their second leg match occurs just prior to their home match versus Forest, the “easiest” game among their next five.
Leeds United (currently 15th, six points above the drop zone)
Great Escape Rate: 13.6
Leeds has a bumpy road ahead. They play three teams currently in the top third of the table, along with two mid-table teams. They do get two of their toughest opponents – City and Brentford – at home, but they are forced to travel to Manchester United on April 11.
In the midst of this slog, they face Norwich in an FA Cup match on March 8.
Even though it’s difficult to see Leeds having a chance to win more than two of their remaining five matches (home against Sunderland and away to Palace), something tells us that the six-point cushion they currently enjoy above the relegation zone will be enough to see them home safely.
West Ham United (currently 15th, two points from safety)
Great Escape Rate: 15.1
As miserable as it is to admit this, the Hammers are up against a brutal run during their next five matches. They clash with three top-tier teams (Liverpool, City and Villa), including two of those away from home: Liverpool and Villa.
Their match away to mid-table Fulham on March 4 won’t be easy, but perhaps West Ham will be motivated by revenge following the Cottagers' 1-0 victory at the London Stadium back in December. The Hammers finally do get a break in the final game of this five-match death march when they host Wolves.
One key question West Ham must answer involves their next FA Cup match: Who will fill the lineup and how hard they’ll play in their last-16 clash on March 9 against Brentford? With their match against City on March 14, will the Hammers take their foot off the gas and – like a struggling NBA team – go in the tank to focus on their fight for survival?
It might be the smart move.