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West Ham In Danger of Playing Down to Competition

ByJustin Wasik|
West Ham. (Photo by Peter Powell - Pool/Getty Images)
West Ham. (Photo by Peter Powell - Pool/Getty Images)

With a brutal stretch of fixtures successfully completed, West Ham must learn from the past and not play down to their competition moving forward.

When looking at the fixtures before the 2020-21 Premier League campaign began, West Ham bemoaned at yet another brutal start to the season. Liverpool, Manchester City, Leicester City, Arsenal, Wolves and Tottenham all were to face the Hammers within the first two months of fixtures.

A surprise to many, the Hammers successfully completed that stretch losing only two matches and picking up three points from Wolves and Leicester. Many fans would have bitten your hand off to have eight points through those first seven fixtures.

But as West Ham’s set of fixtures ease up in difficulty on paper, many supporters are worrisome of the club continuing a trend of playing down to their competition.

This “easier” run of fixtures begins with relegation favourites Fulham this upcoming weekend and continues with now-relegation candidates Sheffield United. The Irons then play Aston Villa and although they have started off well, they barely survived relegation last season.

A neutral may look at those games and think a few wins are on the horizon. But if you’re any sort of Hammers fan, you know it is not that simple, especially during a crazy season where there are goals galore and home-field advantage is nearly obsolete.

A Consistent Trend

When analyzing the Hammer’s points-per-match (PPM) against the final table position of opponents over the last few years, you will see some interesting trends:

Sure, West Ham have certainly beaten up on teams that are set for relegation, but there is a reason those teams are in the bottom three – many teams beat up on them all season. What is more interesting is the “Big 6” and “9th-14th” columns.

While there are no obvious trends when looking at those columns individually, dividing the PPM for 9th-14th (considered mid-table for this analysis) teams by the “Big 6” will show the ratio between the two has consistently decreased over the last four seasons.

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This highlights the fact West Ham have certainly been playing up to their competition, but also have been playing down to competition they should aim to be beating if pushing for Europe.

Style of Play May Factor In West Ham’s Inconsistency

After the poor performance against Newcastle on opening day, West Ham have encountered a good run of form. The formation change David Moyes adopted for the next match against Arsenal has proven to be instrumental and the club have continued to play with three at the back ever since.

I believe this formation works well against the “bigger” clubs, teams that are more likely to have more possession. The difference in possession actually benefits West Ham when they play this formation. The system allows the Hammers to soak up pressure confidently as they have an extra defender.

Furthermore, it allows for David Moyes’ side to counter-attack when obtaining possession, something the trio of Pablo Fornals, Jarrod Bowen, and Michail Antonio have done well together.

However, against teams that do not have the talent or possession the bigger clubs have, West Ham may not be able to fully use this set up to their advantage. If that proves to be the case, Moyes may be forced to adapt, either with personnel on the pitch or a change in formation.

Either way, all West Ham players must realize the inconsistency they have shown over the last few years and have the mindset that they will reverse that trend, starting against Fulham.