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Is This A Turning Point for Lanzini’s West Ham Career?

By Justin Wasik

West Ham's Manuel Lanzini (Photo by Matt Dunham - Pool/Getty Images)
West Ham's Manuel Lanzini (Photo by Matt Dunham - Pool/Getty Images) /
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Is his wonder goal against Spurs the catalyst that gets Manuel Lanzini’s West Ham career back on track?

As West Ham fans from around the world assess the crazy comeback that led to a draw against rivals Tottenham Hotspur, many continue to watch the incredible equalizer from the foot of Manuel Lanzini.

The combination of pace, spin, location, and timing made the goal one that will live in West Ham folklore for years to come. What makes the goal even more incredible is that Lanzini’s shot had a xG of 0.01, as reported by Understat.

This means that based on the location of the shot attempt, the timing, and a variety of other factors, Lanzini was expected to score that goal only 1% of the time – literally a one in a hundred goal.

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But as us Hammers come down from the crazy high that equalizer brought us, we must now assess if and how this goal can potentially be a turning point in Manuel Lanzini’s West Ham career.

Lanzini has simply not been the same player since rupturing is ACL during the summer of 2018. Before the injury, he was one of the first names on the squad sheet ever since he came over from Saudi side Al-Jazira before the 2015-16 season.

Lanzini, alongside Dimitri Payet, formed a combination that gave West Ham fans beautiful, free-flowing football during the last season at the Boleyn. He produced six goals and two assists during that season, before adding a further thirteen goals and eight assists over the next two seasons, which included a runner-up position in the 2018 Hammer of the Year Award.

However, after tearing his ACL, he has simply been a shell of himself. After missing nearly the entire 2018-19 season, the Argentine has only scored twice for West Ham since the injury, including this past weekend’s goal. He has not scored since the last day of the 2018-19 season at Vicarage Road.

One does not need to look past those simple stats to notice Lanzini’s drop in performance, but advanced statistics further highlight how different of a player Lanzini has been:

Shots, key passes, and successful dribbles per 90 minutes are all significantly higher in the seasons before his injury. More shots and key passes per game highlight Lanzini’s confidence and effectiveness with the ball at his feet before his ACL surgery.

In my opinion, however, the key stat is the significantly lower number of dribbles per 90 minutes after his injury. These numbers underline the lack of aggressiveness in Lanzini’s game post-surgery, which stems from a lack of confidence in his game overall.

This is a complete mental block which, coming from someone who has had ACL surgery, is something very common among athletes but even more destructive for a player’s performance. It is imperative that top athletes have a strong mentality in order to succeed on the pitch.

Even after looking at these stats, I still have hope for Lanzini when looking at his expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes and expected assists (xA) per key pass in open play. These stats have remained consistent both before and after his injury.

Putting all of these statistics together shows that, when he does have the ball at his feet, he is still good at getting himself and others in good positions to score when he exhibits aggressive and confident play. He simply hasn’t done that at all since 2018.

All he needs to do is be aggressive when he does have the ball but that comes from developing confidence, something he has been sorely lacking from his game due to the injury and subsequent poor performances.

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Will this wonder goal be the catalyst for a turnaround in Lanzini’s confidence? We shall see. As West Ham fans, we can only hope that it will be and we see the Lanzini of old again. Because there ain’t nobody quite like him on his day.