West Ham and the race for 7th: Can we get there? Do we want Europe?

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LONDON, ENGLAND – DECEMBER 22: Ben Foster of Watford saves a shot from Robert Snodgrass of West Ham United during the Premier League match between West Ham United and Watford FC at London Stadium on December 22, 2018 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Christopher Lee/Getty Images) /

What do the stats say?

Ok so we’re trying to remove the passion for this side from the equation, it’s down to the statistics. What do the models say is going to happen? Well my good friend Jono Forwood (@WTFPL) allowed me an insight into his model and this is what I’ve got: It’s pretty unlikely that we’re going to finish 7th.

Looking at all the matches as individual incidents and using prediction data from now (it will change as the season goes on, injuries happen, form changes or matches get rescheduled) Wolves and Watford are expected to have 4 or 5 more points than us by the end of the season. Obviously that can swing fairly easily, as we’re playing Watford and they play each other, but keeping the model as simple as is useable it’s not particularly hopeful for the Hammers.

In context of earlier tweets around @WTFPL101 work and running it through spreadsheets, this is what I mean about race for 7th:
West Ham will need to perform above expectation and Wolves/Wat below expectation for rest of season pic.twitter.com/6Vvh7AO25U
— Green St. Hammers (@GreenStHammers) March 5, 2019

As the beautiful graph above shows, we could finish above both, but we would need to out perform expectations and Wolves/Watford under perform. Well Watfod have crashed at season end before, but we’re trying to be objective. The other big issue is that we would need both of them to perform below expectations, not just the one. According to the model and being very simplistic (assuming the chances of each others points aren’t impacted by each other, which we know they are), we have just under 15% chance of securing 7th. So…you’re saying there’s still a chance?