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Taking Stock of West Ham at the Conclusion of the International Break

By Jeff Catlin

LONDON, ENGLAND - APRIL 29: Declan Rice of West Ham United deflects Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City (not pictured) cross into the net for a own goal and Manchester City's second goal of the gaem during the Premier League match between West Ham United and Manchester City at London Stadium on April 29, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - APRIL 29: Declan Rice of West Ham United deflects Kevin De Bruyne of Manchester City (not pictured) cross into the net for a own goal and Manchester City's second goal of the gaem during the Premier League match between West Ham United and Manchester City at London Stadium on April 29, 2018 in London, England. (Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images) /
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Another International Break is over and West Ham’s opponent doesn’t get any tougher than top of the table and unbeaten Manchester City. Before that kicks off, let’s take a step back and take stock of just how West Ham have performed thus far.

Coming into the match, West Ham is on 12 points and 13th in the table. The only consistency for the club thus far has been inconsistency.  As is usually the case with the club’s supporters, either the sky is falling or European football beckons for the Hammers—depending on the results of the most recent match.

Taking a step back during the break provides an opportunity for a more sober assessment of the Iron’s fortunes at the moment, without the instant knee-jerk reaction to a match that influences thinking.

Breaking down the fixtures grouped around each of the 3 international breaks, it’s pretty easy to see that after the first four matches of the season West Ham has been improved, to much improved.

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Those first four games all ended in losses for the Hammers and they went into the first International Break on no points and in the relegation zone. The second group of four matches in between the first and second break saw the Irons hit their best form of the season so far, securing 7 points highlighted by a 3-1 win over Man United. There was a bit of a sour taste left in the mouth though as a less than full 90-minute effort at Brighton ended that run with a 0-1 loss.

In the last batch of games between the second and current international break saw Manuel Pellegrini’s club still picking up points, although not quite as briskly in the middle frame.  The Irons earned 5 points over their last four; the only win was the 4-2 beatdown of Burnley. This set of games also featured a draw at Huddersfield going into this current spell of rest that left the club wanting and expecting more after another less than full effort.

So on the positive side of things, in the last 8 matches, West Ham have lost only twice.  That’s impressive. Especially when considering at times there were results to be had and points to be earned for the club and they fell short.  They also have had their usual early season injuries to overcome. In the last 8 games, they’ve accumulated 12 points. By any measure earning 12 points out of 8 games is excellent.  If the club were to keep up that pace for the rest of the season they would end on 51 points. Last season 51 points landed a club between 7 (Burnley, 54) and 8 (Everton, 49).

If you ask a West Ham supporter right now if they would be happy with a finish as high as 7th I am sure they would take it. Most fans I have spoken to expect the club to end up in the top half of the table.  That would put the club on target to have a finish on par with the heady 2015-16 season—the last at the Boleyn that we all remember so fondly.

That campaign, under Slavin Bilic, was incidentally the last time West Ham United beat Manchester City.  It was a 2-1 victory at Etihad Stadium. Since that match, City have outscored WHU 20-5.

But back to the present. If you are a West Ham supporter that tends to the negative view (isn’t some of that inherent in supporting West Ham?) then the alternate look at reality is the club has 12 points on 12 matches so far. That pace puts them at 38 points to finish.  The imaginary magic line for safety from relegation is 40 points.  Luckily for the Irons, that line is usually drawn in a Premier League that doesn’t feature Fulham or Cardiff City in it.   It would be unlikely that either of those clubs gets out of their current bottom of the table occupation.

There are then a group of three more clubs currently on 8 points and two more on 9. That’s a total of 5 clubs between the Hammers and relegation.

After the fixture with Manchester City, the Club continues with its run of fixtures vs all of those clubs noted above that are on fewer points than they are: Newcastle, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, and Fulham. Then comes Watford, Southampton, Burnley, and Brighton over the busy holiday stretch before the next International Break in early January.

When that break comes, the club should have accumulated at least 13 points from those 8 fixtures. That would keep them just about even with the current pace of 12 points in the last 8 games.

Next. West Ham vs. Manchester City; A snowballs hope in hell… or worse?. dark

But first things first.  Manchester City comes to the Olympic Stadium at the weekend. Let’s be realistic– holding the match to any scoreline that qualifies a “less than embarrassing” would be a good way for the Hammers to end this International Break and set off on their next batch of fixtures. A grouping in which the club needs to keep up not only its current points pace but improve upon their current form and begin a steadier, more consistent climb up the table